Goldman Sachs said oil exports from the Gulf have recovered to roughly two-thirds of the level seen before the conflict, easing some of the pressure that had been pushing global crude prices higher.
In a research note cited by market reports, the bank said combined shipments of crude and refined products from the region have climbed to about 15 million to 16 million barrels a day. That marks a sharp rebound from March, when flows had fallen to around 5 million to 6 million barr...
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els a day, but still leaves exports about 7 million to 8 million barrels a day below pre-war levels.
The recovery has been helped by greater traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that carries a large share of the world’s seaborne oil trade. Goldman Sachs said volumes passing through the strait are likely close to the 8 million to 10 million barrels a day estimated by US officials. The bank said more unreported sailings by specialist carriers and increased ship-to-ship transfers suggest producers and shipping companies are adapting to the disruptions in the Middle East.
Even so, the situation remains fragile. Later reports said renewed attacks on tankers in and around the Strait of Hormuz have interrupted the earlier improvement in Gulf flows, reviving concerns about supply security and pushing Brent back towards the mid-$80s a barrel. Goldman Sachs has warned that further disruption could lift prices materially, particularly if the chokepoint were to be severely constrained.
The bank has also said the risk to energy markets is not uniform. In its view, LNG and refined-product flows are still lagging normal levels, which could leave European gas prices and oil-product futures more exposed than crude if supply problems persist for an extended period.
Goldman Sachs has separately estimated that a full one-month closure of the Strait of Hormuz could add around $15 a barrel to oil prices if there were no offsetting measures. It said the impact would be smaller if spare pipeline capacity or strategic petroleum reserves were deployed, but still significant, underscoring the strategic importance of a route that handles close to 20 million barrels a day of global oil production.
Source: Noah Wire Services
