**Global shipping industry:** Maersk has lowered its 2025 global container growth forecast from 4% to a range of -1% to 4%, citing tariff disputes between the US and China, booking cancellations, and threatened recession risks. Despite strong Q1 profits, freight rates face pressure amid rising vessel supply.
Maersk Adjusts Global Container Forecast Amid Geopolitical and Economic Uncertainties
Danish shipping giant Maersk has revised its global container market forecast for 2025, reflecting growing macroeconomic and geopolitical concerns. The company’s latest projections indicate a potential decline of 1% or an increase of up to 4%, significantly down from the 4% growth initially anticipated earlier this year. This shift underscores the complexities of an evolving trade landscape, marked by escalating tariff disputes and uncertainties in economic conditions, particularly in the United States.
According to the company, global container demand remains “highly uncertain.” Vincent Clerc, CEO of AP Møller-Maersk, highlighted the influence of fluctuating trade policies and increasing recession risks within the U.S. economy. Although Maersk anticipates short-term growth in the second quarter, potentially driven by shippers frontloading shipments due to a temporary pause in tariffs, there remains “a growing risk that demand could contract” later in the year. This duality hinges on future tariff outcomes, making the market outlook increasingly unpredictable.
The impact of existing tariffs has already manifested in significant booking cancellations. German competitor Hapag-Lloyd reported a 30% cancellation rate for shipments from China to the U.S., a trend that may signal broader ramifications for global shipping. Meanwhile, Sea-Intelligence observed that while current reductions in container volumes from China into the U.S. have not yet fully materialised at the American coast, the anticipated volumes are expected to drop significantly in the coming weeks.
Adding to the uncertainty, the Port of Los Angeles forecasts a staggering 35% year-over-year decline in business, a reflection of the broader industry challenges. This view is corroborated by statements from various carriers and freight forwarders, reporting booking declines of between 30% and 50%, particularly from the Chinese market. Such figures portend a tumultuous period ahead as the industry recalibrates amid these disruptions.
The geopolitical landscape, characterised by fluctuating trade relationships, notably between the U.S. and China, complicates matters further. Clerc previously remarked on the complexities of adjusting global supply chains, asserting that the effects of tariffs wield considerable long-term repercussions on trade volumes and economic health. Evidence of declining trade between the two nations was succinctly illustrated in recent data, with U.S.-China trade volumes shrinking by as much as 40% in April alone. However, in light of ongoing discussions aimed at de-escalating tensions, there remains a glimmer of hope for future trade revitalisation.
Despite these challenges, Maersk has reported robust first-quarter results for 2025, achieving an impressive year-on-year EBITDA increase of 70%, reaching $2.71 billion. This success is juxtaposed against forecasts of increased vessel supply and a subsequent decline in freight rates, which have reached unsustainable levels due to overcapacity. Clerc acknowledges the necessity for a comprehensive approach to counterbalance this pressure, including measures like slow steaming and ship recycling.
Looking ahead, Maersk’s capital expenditure plans for 2024-2025 have been set at $10-11 billion, an increase aimed at renewing its fleet with modern container vessels. While the company acknowledges the anticipation of reduced demand growth, the alignment of costs with expected market conditions remains crucial.
As the global container market continues to navigate through these turbulent waters, Maersk’s adaptive strategies and keen awareness of both domestic and international market fluctuations will be vital in determining its trajectory—a hallmark of resilience in a rapidly changing industry landscape.
Reference Map:
- Paragraph 1 – [[1]](https://splash247.com/maersk-slashes-2025-global-container-projections/), [[3]](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/maersk-keeps-2025-outlook-unchanged-q1-profits-beat-forecast-2025-05-08/)
- Paragraph 2 – [[1]](https://splash247.com/maersk-slashes-2025-global-container-projections/), [[5]](https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/maersk-ceo-says-container-rates-have-fallen-unsustainable-levels-2024-03-14/)
- Paragraph 3 – [[1]](https://splash247.com/maersk-slashes-2025-global-container-projections/), [[2]](https://www.ft.com/content/0b393b32-e49d-4bca-8b7f-cce95e9a4f08)
- Paragraph 4 – [[1]](https://splash247.com/maersk-slashes-2025-global-container-projections/), [[3]](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/maersk-keeps-2025-outlook-unchanged-q1-profits-beat-forecast-2025-05-08/)
- Paragraph 5 – [[2]](https://www.ft.com/content/0b393b32-e49d-4bca-8b7f-cce95e9a4f08), [[4]](https://www.ft.com/content/ec3a50a9-1818-497c-aed6-c4587325e92e)
- Paragraph 6 – [[3]](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/maersk-keeps-2025-outlook-unchanged-q1-profits-beat-forecast-2025-05-08/), [[5]](https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/maersk-ceo-says-container-rates-have-fallen-unsustainable-levels-2024-03-14/)
- Paragraph 7 – [[6]](https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/maersk-sees-sustained-global-demand-slower-pace-2024-08-07/), [[5]](https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/maersk-ceo-says-container-rates-have-fallen-unsustainable-levels-2024-03-14/)
Source: Noah Wire Services
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