**India**: Ajay Srivastava, founder of GTRI, advises India to adopt a balanced approach in trade with China and the US, emphasising strategic autonomy, boosting domestic manufacturing, and adhering to WTO rules amid ongoing tariff disputes and complex global supply chain dependencies.
Ajay Srivastava, Founder of the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), has urged India to adopt a balanced and strategic approach in its trade relations with both China and the United States amid the ongoing tariff disputes between the two economic powers. Srivastava emphasised that India should avoid aligning itself exclusively with either side, instead navigating the complex geopolitical landscape through the principles of strategic autonomy and adherence to global trade norms.
Speaking to KNN India, Srivastava stated, “India should not be drawn into binary geopolitical rivalries. Instead, it must engage with both China and the US on equal terms—guided by strategic autonomy, economic interest, and global trade principles—not by external pressure.” He highlighted the importance of India maintaining an independent stance amid the evolving international trade environment.
This call for strategic engagement comes in the context of recent warnings from Chinese state media, which indicated that China would respond firmly and reciprocally to any countries perceived as siding with the US over trade matters. The report stressed China’s opposition to any agreements between other nations and the United States that could potentially undermine Chinese interests.
Srivastava and the GTRI have recommended that India focus on strengthening domestic manufacturing capacities and reducing reliance on critical imports by investing in advanced manufacturing infrastructure. This approach is intended to enhance India’s resilience in global supply chains and support economic self-reliance.
The think tank also encouraged India to remain committed to the multilateral trade framework overseen by the World Trade Organisation (WTO), cautioning against any actions that might violate international trade rules. India is currently engaged in bilateral trade negotiations with the United States, with discussions expected to conclude by autumn 2025. While the US has suspended reciprocal tariffs on several countries including India, tariffs on Chinese imports remain in place, with a general 10% tariff baseline applied to most US imports.
GTRI cautioned policymakers to view China’s retaliatory trade measures through the broader context of global supply chain dependencies. The organisation pointed out that China continues to play a pivotal role in the world economy by supplying not only final consumer products but also critical intermediate goods and components vital for industrial manufacturing processes.
According to GTRI, despite some gains from the ‘China+1’ strategy—where countries diversify their manufacturing away from China—completely replacing China in global supply chains would require enormous investment across the entire manufacturing ecosystem, a feat not yet achieved by any country.
The think tank also critiqued the US strategy of leveraging tariff negotiations to pressure trade partners into decoupling from China, describing this as disconnected from economic realities. Highlighting the challenges in the US-China trade relationship, GTRI noted, “Even the US hasn’t been able to curb its imports from China. The last trade war only widened the US trade deficit.”
Overall, the Global Trade Research Initiative advises that India proceed carefully in its trade negotiations and diplomatic engagements, recognising both the strategic challenges and opportunities presented by the current international trade environment.
Source: Noah Wire Services
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