Freight procurement faces upheaval as market volatility becomes the new normal, says Xeneta

Global freight procurement has entered an era in which yesterday’s benchmarks can become liabilities almost overnight, according to Xeneta, which says repeated shocks since 2020 have permanently altered how shippers need to buy capacity.

In its 2026 Freight Report, the Norway-based market intelligence firm says the container shipping sector has been hit by a succession of disruptions that began with the pandemic and then ran through the Ever Given blockage, the war in Ukraine...

, the Panama Canal drought, the Red Sea crisis, a US East Coast port strike, tariff changes and carrier alliance reshuffles. Xeneta argues that this pattern has effectively created a “polycrisis” environment in which procurement teams can no longer rely on annual planning cycles or their own historical rate books.

The company says that shippers depending on carrier quotes and internal records risk paying more than they should, missing the right moment to tender and discovering market changes only after the costs have landed in their accounts. In its view, the real danger is not only volatility itself, but the delay between market movement and procurement response.

That warning comes as the broader market shows signs of excess capacity in some lanes even while pricing remains unsettled. Beroe said in its 2026 outlook on container shipping that the industry has been through a reset, with new vessel deliveries, weaker consumption growth and inventory normalisation all contributing to structural oversupply. Even so, it noted that the adjustment is uneven and that rates, while trending lower in some areas, remain volatile.

Xeneta says that imbalance helps explain why spot prices can rise even when fundamentals look soft. Carriers, it argues, are increasingly using blank sailings, capacity allocations and surcharges to manage supply, rather than responding purely to cargo demand. In that environment, it says, a shipper that negotiates from static assumptions is likely to lose money.

The firm points to a more disciplined response: anchor negotiations to independent market data, time tenders to current conditions, build flexibility into contracts and set up early-warning systems that flag sudden changes. It says this approach has already helped some customers. One beverage shipper reallocated 3,000 TEU and kept a carrier to contracted pricing, while another pushed back successfully on a request for a 100 per cent surcharge.

Xeneta says the commercial payoff is measurable, claiming that benchmarking against live market data can cut tender cycles by up to a fifth and secure awards at an average discount to prevailing market levels. Its broader message is that procurement teams are no longer operating in a stable cycle with occasional interruptions, but in a trading environment where disruption is the norm and resilience has become a negotiating tool in itself.

Source: Noah Wire Services