Geopolitical tension in the Middle East is feeding through into UK retail in the form of emptier shelves, higher stockouts and more frequent compromises for shoppers, according to new research from invent.ai.
The AI-driven retail planning company surveyed more than 1,000 UK consumers and found that, on average, two-fifths of planned grocery spend was unavailable because items were out of stock. More than half of respondents, 54%, said they have noticed worse shelf availability ...
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since conflict in the region escalated earlier this year, while 69% linked the shortages directly to supply chain disruption.
The findings come against a wider backdrop of pressure on global trade routes and logistics. Analysts at S&P Global have warned that the conflict is affecting energy, transport, food and manufacturing supply chains well beyond the region, with shortages of key materials such as fuel gases, fertilisers and plastics rippling through production systems. Metro Global reported in March that air cargo networks, ocean freight services and pricing had all been shaken, with capacity on some routes sharply below normal levels.
For UK retailers, the most immediate challenge is keeping core products in stock. Invent.ai said 77% of shoppers expect supermarkets to prioritise essentials, while 74% want suitable substitutions when products are missing. Yet the research suggests that loyalty is fragile: 27% of consumers said shelf gaps make them question their commitment to a supermarket brand, rising to 46% among Gen Z and 39% among Millennials. A further 41% said they would simply move to another retailer.
The pressure is not confined to food. Nearly a third of shoppers, 29%, reported gaps in fashion ranges when buying in store, while 23% had encountered stockouts online. In response, 30% said they would be less loyal to a brand, another 30% would look elsewhere, and 42% would shift their spend to a marketplace. A sizable 45% said they would abandon the purchase and search on resale platforms instead, a figure that rises sharply among younger consumers.
The broader economic consequences are also becoming clearer. An S&P Global analysis in April estimated that disruptions linked to the conflict affect goods accounting for 0.55% of global GDP, while an industry note from Oliver Wyman in March highlighted the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, through which much of Asia’s oil and liquefied natural gas passes. NHS Supply Chain has likewise warned that higher fuel, logistics and air freight costs are likely to keep pressure on food prices and operating models in the months ahead.
Lukas Fischer, sales director at invent.ai, said shoppers may understand the scale of the challenge, but their expectations have not changed. He said availability still needed to be right “at the right time, in the right place and through the channel they prefer”. He added that retailers would need better forecasting, visibility and responsiveness if they were to protect sales and customer relationships in an environment where disruption is becoming routine.
For retailers already facing slim margins, the message is stark: in a period of sustained geopolitical instability, stock control is no longer just an operational issue, but a direct test of loyalty.
Source: Noah Wire Services
