U.S. Venezuela intervention shifts North American energy leverage towards the US and away from Canada

The U.S. operation to oust Nicolás Maduro and control Venezuela’s oil resources is reshaping North American trade dynamics, potentially eroding Canada’s influence and reinforcing U.S. energy dominance amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.

The dramatic U.S. operation in early January that removed Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro and put Washington in control of key elements of Venezuela’s oil sector has abruptly shifted the balance of leverage in North Ameri...

can trade, with Canada emerging as a principal economic casualty, according to commentary and reporting from multiple outlets.

The Daily Signal’s E.J. Antoni argues that U.S. control of Venezuelan crude, similar in quality to heavy western Canadian oil refined on the U.S. Gulf Coast, means American refiners will be able to substitute redirected Venezuelan shipments for Canadian imports, eroding Ottawa’s “only real leverage” in trade talks with Washington. Antoni says the move is a strategic win for U.S. consumers and businesses, who would benefit from lower energy costs as Venezuelan output and investment are restored, and for Venezuelans if foreign capital rebuilds the country’s neglected infrastructure. The piece frames the shift as part of a broader “America first” realignment in the hemisphere. The Daily Signal commentary also notes Venezuela’s wider resource base, rare earths, bauxite, lumber and natural gas, as additional areas where U.S. influence could displace Canadian advantage.

What the recent operations have done in practice has been well documented by news agencies. The U.S. has seized a series of tankers in Caribbean and Atlantic waters that Washington says were breaching sanctions tied to Maduro’s regime. The Veronica was boarded in the Caribbean without incident, the Associated Press reported, and was described as part of a “shadow fleet” that attempted to evade a U.S. quarantine. AP and Le Monde both reported earlier seizures, including a vessel sailing under a Russian flag, and said the Biden-era embargoes and the Trump administration’s subsequent enforcement actions have been extensive. The U.S. has said it plans to sell seized cargoes and use proceeds to finance an estimated $100 billion of investment in Venezuela’s oil infrastructure, according to AP, while President Trump told reporters that Cuba’s economy “is going down for the count” if it does not reach an agreement with the United States after losing Venezuelan support.

Industry data and market observers temper the immediate impact on North American flows. Venezuela holds vast proven reserves, about 303 billion barrels, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration figures cited in reporting, but production has collapsed from historical peaks. Analysts cited by Cointribune and market-tracking firm Kpler put current Venezuelan output well below its potential, closer to the low hundreds of thousands to around 800,000 barrels per day in recent counts, while Chevron was reported to be exporting roughly 140,000 barrels per day in late 2025. Rebuilding fields and transport infrastructure, reconstituting commercial relationships and resolving legal claims over assets will take years, not weeks. As the Daily Signal commentary acknowledges, the redirected supply “will not arrive in the U.S. overnight.”

Even so, the U.S. enforcement campaign has already altered commercial calculations. Buyers and insurers watching seizures and sanctions risk may delay payments or demand stronger assurances, analysts told reporting outlets, complicating flows while Washington establishes oversight. Le Monde and AP noted international concern and accusations of maritime “piracy” from Moscow and others, and legal experts quoted by Time questioned the international-law basis for military seizures and for the broader intervention. Those legal and diplomatic disputes raise the prospect that markets, governments and companies will factor geopolitical risk into procurement decisions for some time.

For Canada, the potential loss of a captive crude market is especially consequential because a large share of Canadian exports are destined for the United States and the Canadian economy is relatively export‑dependent. Antoni’s argument is that a durable pivot of Venezuelan barrels into U.S. refineries could reduce Canadian bargaining power on issues from energy access to broader trade negotiations. That outcome, however, depends on how quickly Venezuelan output can be scaled up and on the disposition of existing foreign contracts and Russian and Chinese interests in Venezuela’s energy sector, matters highlighted in reporting by Cointribune and Le Monde, which noted Russian-linked joint ventures and the uncertain enforceability of long-term deals as Caracas’s political control shifts.

Policy implications are wide-ranging. U.S. officials present the measures as enforcing sanctions against a regime they label culpable in drug-trafficking and repression, and as a means to redirect revenues for reconstruction, as AP and Time report. Critics see the actions as a forceful assertion of American power in the hemisphere with contested legal foundations. Meanwhile, energy markets and North American trade relations are likely to be reshaped incrementally: a longer-term substitution of Venezuelan heavy crude for Canadian supplies is plausible if investment flows and production recover, but in the near term refiners, traders and governments will navigate supply uncertainty, legal disputes and diplomatic fallout.

The strategic calculation is clear in official rhetoric and industry commentary: control of Venezuela’s energy resources confers economic and geopolitical leverage. Whether that translates into lasting damage to Canada’s economic position or into broadly lower energy prices for U.S. consumers will depend on the pace of reconstruction, the resolution of international claims and how market participants respond to elevated geopolitical risk. According to reportage across AP, Le Monde, Time and industry sources, the transformation of Venezuela from a troubled exporter into a U.S.-influenced supplier is neither instantaneous nor uncontested, but it has already remoulded the leverage map in North America.

Source: Noah Wire Services