Travel retail faces evolving landscape with acceleration in cruise and digital strategies amid geopolitical risks

Industry experts see growth in travel retail continuing into 2026, driven by investment in cruise, ports, and digital tech, but caution over geopolitical instability and sustainability claims.

Introduction by Peter Marshall sets a cautious tone for travel retail in 2026, warning that geopolitical upheaval will test an industry still navigating consolidation and slow evolution. The central contention is that growth will continue but unevenly, and that airports will remai...

n dominant even as cruise lines and seaports accelerate their share of the market. Drawing on multiple industry studies and market summaries, this enhanced overview expands and substantiates those points, situating them within measurable investment trends, technological adoption and shifting consumer preferences.

A broadly positive but uneven macro outlook
Peter Marshall’s forecast of “high single, to low double‑digit CAGR through 2026 and beyond” aligns with independent market research showing increased investment across non‑airport travel nodes. According to IndustryResearch.biz, seaports and cruise terminals now attract roughly 23% of new travel‑retail investment, reflecting a deliberate strategy to expand the channel beyond traditional airports. Proficient Market Insights adds that Asia‑Pacific remains pivotal, accounting for about 37% of global travel‑retail sales, while cruise terminals in North America served over 14 million passengers in recent years, reinforcing the argument that cruise retail will be a faster‑growing sub‑segment.

Airports: bigger, more experiential, more data‑ambitious
Marshall’s prediction that airports will retain their revenue primacy is reinforced by evidence of widespread capital expenditure and space reconfiguration. Market reports describe a wave of refurbishment and expansion of duty‑free zones and a move to larger walk‑through stores, “airport as showroom” positioning and mixed‑use concepts combining F&B, pop‑ups and digital experiences. Industry data shows major operators and retailers are investing heavily in omnichannel platforms, AR discovery tools and self‑service technologies; Dufry’s 2024 digital upgrades, cited in a market study, reportedly lifted conversion rates by 22%.

Operators are pushing for scale and for measurable returns on activations rather than visibility alone. Retailers and landlords are experimenting with joint ventures and more aggressive minimum annual guarantees, while calls for improved data‑sharing arrangements are becoming louder. The wider research base indicates that more than 60% of major airport retailers adopted click‑and‑collect and contactless payments in 2024, supporting Marshall’s view that pilots will move into core infrastructure.

Cruise and port retail: a distinct opportunity
Marshall’s emphasis on cruise retail evolving into larger, multi‑deck, luxury‑led environments echoes market intelligence showing heavy investment in curated, story‑led retail at sea. IndustryResearch.biz and Proficient Market Insights both note terminal upgrades and an expanding retail footprint at ports, with retailers treating ports as full travel‑retail nodes combining duty‑free, local concepts and foodservice to capture pre‑ and post‑cruise spend. The consensus in the reporting is clear: cruise retail requires bespoke strategies, brands “cannot cut and paste” airport approaches, and this specialisation supports higher margins and differentiated offers.

Brands, categories and premiumisation with affordability
Marshall’s central thesis, that consumers polarise between affordable “treat” items and indulgent high‑margin purchases, finds strong backing in category data. Proficient Market Insights notes premium cosmetics and fragrances grew substantially in duty‑free zones in 2024, while multiple reports highlight continued strength in beauty, spirits and confectionery. Sustainability and “responsible luxury” are increasingly prominent in brand narratives; one study reports 25% growth in sustainability‑linked investments, including biodegradable packaging and carbon‑neutral store designs. At the same time, expansion and consolidation activity, rumoured disposals among major spirits groups and niche beauty acquisitions, reflects both strategic repositioning and the search for buyers able to pay for differentiated travel‑retail reach.

Digital, AI and the governance question
Marshall highlights AI‑driven personalisation, pre‑order and dynamic pricing as core structural shifts. Independent market reports corroborate rapid adoption: airlines implementing AI personalisation tools reported double‑digit lifts in conversion and engagement, and nearly half of airlines had deployed AI retailing in 2024. Omnichannel loyalty integration, subscription retail models and inflight contactless payments are already changing the mechanics of purchase and retention. But the research also flags a governance gap: who owns traveller data, how it will be shared across airports, airlines, cruise lines and brands, and how AI will be regulated in targeting and pricing remain unresolved. Industry commentary stresses the need for clear data governance and measurement frameworks if dynamic offers are to deliver durable ROI without eroding passenger trust.

Sustainability and local sourcing: real commitments, uneven delivery
Marshall questions whether sustainability has slipped down the agenda. Market summaries suggest sustainability investments are genuine and growing, with one report recording a 25% increase in sustainability‑linked capital and another noting a 42% share of consumers actively seeking sustainable or locally sourced travel‑retail products. Retailers such as Heinemann and DFS Group are cited for concrete moves on eco‑packaging and eco‑focused store design. Yet industry observers warn that sustainability claims must be backed by measurable outcomes and that “responsible luxury” risks becoming mere marketing unless traceability and third‑party verification are advanced.

Channel morphing and commercial models
Echoing Marshall’s “key themes”, market intelligence shows growing blurring between inflight, airport, port and downtown duty‑free ecosystems. Franchise models are expanding in Eastern Europe and Latin America, and some landlords are adopting more integrated tender and concession structures to support omnichannel fulfilment. Reports identify rising investment in phygital experiences, interactive shop windows, AR try‑ons and digital mirrors, helping bridge online discovery with in‑terminal conversion. The result is a push towards contracts and partnerships that enable shared inventory, unified loyalty benefits and performance‑linked remuneration rather than siloed silos.

Risks: geopolitics, pricing pressure and consolidation
Marshall flags geopolitical shocks as a major risk to travel retail; independent analyses underline that regional macro shocks and airline network adjustments can quickly reshape passenger flows and spend patterns. At the commercial level, intensified tendering and consolidation among major operators will continue to squeeze smaller players, while landlords’ push for higher MAGs may concentrate opportunity in the hands of scale players. Value versus experience will remain an unresolved tension as passengers demand both affordability and differentiated experiences.

Outlook: agility, measurement and selective investment
The combined picture across these sources is consistent with Marshall’s topline view: travel retail in 2026 will expand and professionalise, but growth will be uneven and contingent on operators’ ability to execute on digital transformation, data governance and customer experience. Investment in cruise and port retail, AR/phygital technologies, omnichannel fulfilment and sustainability is accelerating, but success will depend on measurable outcomes and sharper commercial models. Industry reports stress that brands and operators that can turn pilots into scalable infrastructure, demonstrate clear ROI, and manage data and sustainability transparently will capture the upside; those that cannot will face intensified competition and margin pressure.

According to the various market reports and industry commentary, the decisive factors for 2026 will be who can combine scale with agility, convert digital experimentation into proven commerce, and build trust around data and sustainability while navigating an unpredictable geopolitical backdrop.

Source: Noah Wire Services