Saudi crude shipments out of the Red Sea are becoming harder to track as tanker crews increasingly switch off their transponders to reduce the risk of attack from Yemen’s Houthis, creating uncertainty over how much oil is actually moving through one of the region’s most important export routes.
Analysts said recent loadings from Yanbu, Saudi Arabia’s key Red Sea oil terminal, have largely been carried out “dark”, meaning vessels have not been broadcasting their positi...
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ons through automatic identification systems. That has made it difficult to measure the scale of any disruption, with ship-tracking firms producing sharply different estimates for exports in the first week of August.
Vortexa put Yanbu loadings at 2.38 million barrels a day in the week beginning August 3, down from 2.71 million the previous week. Kpler said the decline was steeper, estimating 1.78 million barrels a day versus 4.04 million, while AXSMarine suggested flows actually rose to about 850,000 barrels a day from roughly 420,000. Such discrepancies matter because these figures feed into assessments used by the International Energy Agency, Opec and traders trying to judge the direction of the oil market.
The increase in “dark voyages” comes after the Houthis said on July 20 that they had imposed a maritime embargo on Saudi Arabia, framing the move as part of their campaign linked to the conflict involving the US and Iran. Since then, they have claimed attacks on Saudi-linked tankers, the Yanbu oil facilities and the Jazan refinery, prompting more vessels to disable tracking signals in the Red Sea.
Marine traffic through the Bab al-Mandeb strait has also eased, with the number of vessels reportedly falling to 32 from 50. At the same time, Saudi Arabia has been sending more crude via alternative routes, including the Suez Canal and Egypt’s SUMED pipeline. Loadings at Sidi Kerir have reached a record 2.17 million barrels a day, and about 90% of that volume is understood to be Saudi crude.
The broader regional backdrop remains tense. According to a senior Iranian source, there has been little movement in discussions with Washington over any longer-term arrangement, and Tehran does not see a ceasefire extension as having progressed. “One of the issues that is being discussed via mediators is the US returning to the interim agreement and defining a timeframe,” the source said. “There has been absolutely no progress on this issue.”
The rhetoric has sharpened further in recent days. President Donald Trump claimed on Truth Social that the United States has “total control” over the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint for global energy shipments. He wrote: “The US has total control over the Strait of Hormuz. I think we will keep it! Our Naval Blockade is being called, by everyone, a wall of steel, and there is nothing Iran can do about it.”
Mohsen Rezaei, an Iranian security official, responded that the strait would remain closed unless Washington accepted Tehran’s conditions for ending the war, underscoring how the dispute over maritime access is now feeding directly into the instability around Saudi oil exports.
Source: Noah Wire Services
