Retailers prepare for a disruptive 2026 as centralised supply chains and microfactories reshape holiday sales strategies

The National Retail Federation forecasts US holiday sales exceeding $1 trillion by 2025, prompting retailers to centralise operations and adopt innovative, data-driven fulfilment solutions to stay competitive in a rapidly evolving landscape.

The National Retail Federation expects US holiday sales for November and December 2025 to top $1 trillion for the first time, a rise of roughly 3.7–4.2% over 2024 that underlines how stretched, and consequential, the season has be...

come for retailers and their suppliers. According to the NRF, resilient consumer spending and measured disposable-income indicators are driving that growth, leaving companies heading into January’s reverse-logistics stretch under significant operational pressure.

Against that backdrop, Tanguy Caillet, supply chain services business leader for Genpact, and Charisma Glass, Genpact’s global head of retail and applied advisory services, argue that 2026 will be defined by a deliberate move to centralise internal operations and then use that central control to enable regional delivery agility. The centralised “command centre” they describe pulls together finance, procurement, planning, inventory and supplier-performance data into a single operating model designed to standardise processes, reduce inefficiency and improve forecasting. Industry conversations over the past year, they note, show firms adopting external partners and supply-chain-as-a-service arrangements to accelerate that consolidation.

From that central nervous system, retailers and suppliers will increasingly choreograph algorithmic “supply webs” rather than linear chains. Data-driven algorithms can evaluate thousands of scenarios , which fulfilment node should fill an order, when to reroute shipments, how to factor fuel and capacity , and recommend optimal flows from production to delivery. However, Caillet and Glass emphasise that AI and optimisation tools are not a panacea: the greatest gains come when algorithmic outputs are paired with process intelligence and human expertise to fine-tune models and improve scenario planning.

A tangible expression of this central-to-regional approach is the rise of microfactories sited close to demand centres. Enabled by near-real-time demand signals from the command centre, microfactories , from 3D printing for fashion accessories to small-batch electronics or cosmetics runs , promise faster delivery, lower tariffs and reduced waste. The Genpact authors warn, though, that these facilities bring logistical complexity, upfront capital and specialised labour needs; successful roll-outs will hinge on modular investments, strategic partnerships and careful workforce planning.

Brick-and-mortar stores are also being reimagined as fulfilment assets. Retailers are treating on-shelf inventory as an active part of their multi-level distribution network, using store stock visibility to create pools of regional inventory that can be deployed for same-day delivery, curbside pickup or local shipping. That shift depends on robust inventory visibility across stores, regional hubs and warehouses so replenishment and allocation decisions are made from a single data repository.

Taken together, these trends point to a retail landscape where speed, localisation and data-driven decision-making are deeply integrated with consumer behaviour. The authors recommend that companies prioritise partnerships, invest in upskilling teams for data analysis and treat the command-centre architecture as the starting point rather than the end goal. Industry data and recent retailer feedback indicate that those foundational moves will determine who can scale efficiently and deliver the personalised, fast experiences consumers now expect.

While the promise is clear, so are the trade-offs: capital intensity, tech integration risk and the need for specialised talent. The choices retailers and suppliers make through 2026 , about where to centralise, what to regionalise and how aggressively to deploy AI and microfactories , will shape whether they merely survive peak seasons or convert them into a lasting competitive advantage.

Source: Noah Wire Services