Region reacts to shifting geopolitics amid renewed Middle East conflict

The aftermath of October 7, 2023, has reshaped Middle Eastern geopolitics, with failed peace initiatives and escalating violence challenging hopes for stability. As ceasefire negotiations gain ground, the region faces a complex path towards peace amid deep-rooted tensions and unresolved conflicts.

The morning of October 7, 2023, marked a pivotal turning point in the Middle East, setting in motion a cascade of events that have profoundly transformed the region’s geopol...

itical landscape. Before that day, prospects for peace appeared more tangible: Saudi Arabia was poised toward normalising relations with Israel, buoyed by its recent efforts to mend ties with Iran. This emerging alignment between two of the region’s military powerhouses held the promise of curtailing Iran’s influence and fostering peace in Yemen and Lebanon.

That fragile vision was shattered as Hamas launched a ruthless attack in southern Israel, killing 1,195 people and abducting 251 hostages. The assault reopened deep psychological wounds in Israeli society, evoking traumatic memories from the Holocaust and repeated violent episodes of the early 2000s. The region was soon engulfed in a wider conflict, with destructive reverberations across the Middle East as Israeli forces pursued a strategy perceived as seeking unilateral dominance.

In Lebanon, Israeli airstrikes devastated Beirut and southern regions, resulting in more than 3,100 fatalities, including key Hezbollah figures such as Hassan Nasrallah. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) executed a military campaign in southern Lebanon by October 2024, displacing Hezbollah fighters beyond the Litani River. Despite a ceasefire reached in late November, Israeli bombardments continued, justified by Hezbollah’s refusal to disarm. Simultaneously, attention turned sharply towards Iran, Israel’s long-identified security threat. The shadow war escalated into open hostilities in June 2025 during the 12-day war, heavily impacting the Iranian regime. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu implored Iranians to overthrow their government, but rather than weakening the regime, Israel’s strikes fostered a nationalist rallying.

The conflict further intensified with the United States conducting bombing raids on Iranian nuclear facilities. Though the tangible success of these raids remains debated, then-US President Donald Trump proclaimed a symbolic victory, demanding an end to hostilities between Israel and Iran. Iran’s response was calibrated, carrying out a choreographed attack on a US base in Qatar, signalling defiance without escalating the conflict.

Beyond Iran, Israel has persistently targeted Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen for their attacks on shipping routes in the Red Sea. Meanwhile, the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria provided an opening for Israeli forces to occupy southern territories and the demilitarised buffer zone around the Golan Heights, contravening a 1974 treaty with Syria. More recently, Israeli strikes in Doha, Qatar, aimed at assassinating senior Hamas leaders, failed but triggered a rare unity among Gulf monarchies. This regional backlash has freshened calls for genuine dialogue to end the protracted conflict, with US officials reportedly angered by Israel’s actions against one of its significant non-NATO allies.

Against this fractured context, Donald Trump has proposed a 20-point peace plan aiming to forge a ceasefire. While this initiative is hailed as a notable diplomatic effort, bringing several parties together with a potential pathway to end the fighting, it faces significant criticism. The plan notably sidesteps the creation of a Palestinian state, a key issue deriding past efforts toward Middle Eastern peace. Instead, it proposes a Gaza International Transition Authority akin to a League of Nations mandate a century ago—an arrangement that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu opposes, particularly regarding the governance of Gaza by the Palestinian Authority. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has explicitly stated that without a viable Palestinian state, normalisation between Saudi Arabia and Israel will remain impossible.

The enduring absence of a solution for Palestinians fuels widespread regional anger. The failure of the Abraham Accords to deliver a Palestinian state already provoked resentment, which has only intensified with the ongoing devastation in Gaza. The conflict has exacted an extraordinary human toll. Since the initial attacks, over 67,000 Palestinians have been killed, with many victims women and children, and an estimated 90% of Gaza’s population displaced, while Israeli casualties and the trauma of hostage situations continue to cast long shadows over Israeli society.

Ceasefire negotiations are gathering momentum, with talks held in Egypt involving delegations from Israel, the United States, Qatar, and Hamas. Hamas has shown willingness to engage on Trump’s plan but insists on conditions such as a permanent ceasefire, Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, and reconstruction supervised by a Palestinian technocratic body—terms Israel finds difficult, particularly regarding Hamas’s disarmament.

Amid the somber commemorations marking two years since the deadly Hamas attack, divisions persist within Israel over Prime Minister Netanyahu’s handling of the conflict and efforts to recover remaining hostages. Meanwhile, Gaza remains devastated, with its future reconstruction projected to take decades amid ongoing political and security uncertainties.

As the region stands at a crossroads, the fragile ceasefire talks might open a window for peace, but significant hurdles remain. Without a comprehensive resolution addressing Palestinian statehood and mutual security concerns, the intricate tapestry of Middle Eastern alliances and hostilities shaped by the events of October 7, 2023, will continue to challenge the prospects for lasting peace.

Source: Noah Wire Services