**India**: Facing rapid shifts in Arctic maritime routes due to climate change, India is strengthening its engagement by leveraging the Northern Sea Route for energy security, scientific leadership, and supply chain diversification, while navigating geopolitical complexities and environmental risks.
Global shifts in trade routes and climate change have propelled the Arctic to the forefront of international maritime and strategic interests. Traditionally a remote and inhospitable region, the Arctic is now becoming a vital corridor for global commerce due to rapid sea ice decline, with its Northern Sea Route (NSR) offering significantly shorter shipping passage between Asia and Europe.
The NSR, running through the Arctic Ocean, reduces transit time by up to 40%, offering a strategic alternative to conventional bottlenecks such as the Strait of Malacca. This has attracted increasing attention from various nations, resulting in significant growth in cargo volumes from just 41,000 tonnes in 2010 to 37.9 million tonnes by 2024. With this evolving landscape, India, although not an Arctic coastal state, is positioning itself to leverage the region’s multifaceted potential — encompassing economic, strategic, scientific, and environmental dimensions.
Geopolitical and Commercial Dynamics in the Arctic
Several key actors dominate the Arctic strategic calculus:
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Russia controls about 53% of the Arctic coastline and retains sovereignty over substantial portions of the NSR. Its capabilities include the world’s largest fleet of nuclear-powered icebreakers and significant investments in Arctic liquefied natural gas (LNG) production, particularly the Yamal LNG Project. Russia is actively expanding efforts to enable year-round NSR navigation and has established a maritime corridor with India between Chennai and Vladivostok, along with a 2023 agreement to create a working group for NSR cooperation.
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China, declaring itself a “Near-Arctic State,” promotes the Polar Silk Road as part of its broader Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). It maintains an observer status in the Arctic Council and operates polar icebreakers. China aims to enhance supply chain resilience, circumventing chokepoints like the Malacca Strait and securing Arctic energy sources.
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The United States, NATO, and the European Union have adopted strategic measures emphasising freedom of navigation in Arctic waters, advancing icebreaker capabilities, and pushing for sustainable and green shipping corridors consistent with climate goals. Post-Ukraine war sanctions have curtailed many Western partnerships with Russia, impacting Arctic LNG logistics.
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Japan and South Korea are significant energy consumers reliant on Arctic LNG, especially from Russian projects. They have invested in specialised LNG carriers but remain cautious about the increased cooperation between Russia and China in the region.
India’s Arctic Engagement: Strategy and Structure
India’s Arctic involvement includes observer status at the Arctic Council since 2013 and operation of the Himadri Research Station in Svalbard since 2008. Its Arctic Policy 2022 outlines six pillars emphasising science, climate protection, economic development, connectivity, governance, and capacity building.
Notably, India plans to host the Arctic Circle India Forum in May 2025 to deepen strategic dialogue with key partners from Nordic, East Asian, and North American countries. The government has also allocated a $3 billion Maritime Development Fund aimed at enhancing Arctic-suitable shipbuilding capacities.
Strategic Benefits for India
The Arctic offers several strategic pay-offs for India:
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Energy security: Utilising the NSR can reduce LNG transit time from Russia by approximately 17 days, lowering dependency on vulnerable chokepoints such as Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb. This aligns with India’s National Energy Policy as ONGC Videsh explores Arctic energy linkages.
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Supply chain resilience: The NSR complements existing corridors such as the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) and the Indo-Russian maritime collaboration, contributing to diversified shipping lanes and supporting initiatives such as PM-Gati Shakti and the SAGAR Doctrine.
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Climate science leadership: The Arctic’s climate dynamics influence Indian monsoons and agriculture, which constitute 18% of the national GDP. India’s scientific efforts, including the Himadri base and climate models developed in collaboration with domestic institutions, bolster its role in climate governance.
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Shipbuilding and maritime technology: The substantial Maritime Development Fund aims to foster indigenous polar-class shipbuilding, incorporating green propulsion technologies such as green hydrogen, thereby supporting India’s Blue Economy and Atmanirbhar Bharat initiatives.
Challenges Confronting India’s Arctic Aspirations
Several obstacles complicate India’s Arctic strategy:
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Environmental fragility: The Arctic is warming at a rate four times the global average, with risks of irreversible ecosystem damage. Shipping emissions such as black carbon may exacerbate ice melt, while the International Maritime Organization’s Polar Code governs these issues non-bindingly, posing enforcement challenges.
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Geopolitical tightrope: India must carefully balance engagement with Russia, a key NSR operator and energy supplier, against its strategic concerns over China’s Polar Silk Road ambitions and Western partnerships under frameworks like the Quad.
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Technological limitations: India currently lacks indigenous ice-class vessels and expertise in Arctic navigation, including dual-fuel propulsion systems suitable for polar conditions.
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Legal ambiguities: Under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), Arctic states exercise special control over ice-covered waters, notably Russia’s restrictions on NSR navigation, creating complex legal questions for non-Arctic states like India.
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Insurance and navigation risks: High insurance costs and inadequate search and rescue infrastructure, coupled with limited satellite coverage, raise operational risks for Indian maritime actors.
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Institutional coordination: Multiple Indian ministries manage Arctic policy without a centralised authority or dedicated Polar Affairs division, resulting in fragmented decision-making and reduced agility.
Recommendations for Advancing India’s Arctic Strategy
Experts and policy analysts suggest several steps to strengthen India’s position:
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Develop an indigenous polar-capable fleet: Collaborate with partners such as South Korea and Japan to co-develop ARC-7 class icebreakers capable of year-round Arctic navigation, enhancing India’s technological self-reliance.
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Establish dedicated Arctic diplomacy units: Create a ‘Polar Envoy’ post and an inter-ministerial NSR Strategy Cell to streamline policymaking and diplomatic engagement, taking inspiration from existing Arctic ambassadors in other countries.
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Propose green shipping corridors: Initiate sustainable maritime trade routes, such as the Murmansk–Kandla zero-emission corridor using green fuels, aligning with international climate commitments.
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Strengthen multilateral partnerships: Forge issue-specific coalitions with Arctic Council observer states and like-minded countries to balance influence amid China–Russia cooperation.
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Advance climate-science diplomacy: Expand joint research programmes linking Arctic climate effects with Indian weather patterns to enhance food security and environmental governance.
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Invest in specialised human capital: Develop Arctic-specific maritime training, including polar navigation and risk management, and leverage scholarship programmes to train personnel from India and allied Global South countries.
Outlook
The Arctic region is evolving from a remote polar expanse into a dynamic intersection of climate change, maritime commerce, and great-power politics. For India, engagement with the Arctic represents an opportunity to enhance energy security, diversify supply chains, exert scientific leadership, and shape emerging global norms—all while navigating complex environmental and geopolitical challenges. The unfolding decade is critical for India to capitalise on the Northern Sea Route and establish itself as a significant actor in this rapidly transforming region.
Source: Noah Wire Services
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