**Global**: The latest RaboResearch report indicates that global poultry trade is robust despite challenges like avian influenza and geopolitical tensions. Rising consumer demand and a constrained supply highlight the industry’s adaptable nature, with some nations successfully using vaccination against avian flu to manage outbreaks.
The latest animal protein report from RaboResearch has indicated that global poultry trade is poised to remain robust, particularly in light of a relatively tight global protein supply coupled with rising consumer demand. Predicted global consumption growth for poultry is anticipated to reach between 2.5% to 3% this year, marking the second consecutive year of above-average market growth. This has resulted in notable improvements in profit margins across many regions, although challenges remain. “Almost all regions currently enjoy profitable market conditions, with the notable exception of China,” stated Nan-Dirk Mulder, Senior Analyst – Animal Protein with RaboResearch. He attributed this exception to weaker economic conditions, a decline in consumer confidence, and an oversupplied domestic meat market following years of rapid expansion.
The ongoing challenge of avian influenza continues to weigh heavily on the poultry industry worldwide. The report highlights that the supply of parent stock remains restricted, and the high prices of hatching eggs are constraining growth in certain markets. Mulder noted that rising egg prices are fostering renewed interest in vaccination as a defence against avian flu. He said, “The poultry industry has debated the use of vaccines in recent years, and more countries are adopting vaccination as a tool to reduce the risk of avian influenza spreading.” While there is significant support for vaccines among egg producers, broiler producers are more hesitant due to concerns about potential trade repercussions and mixed results in controlling disease transmission.
Despite these hesitations, some nations have successfully integrated vaccines into their poultry health management strategies. Notably, France, which has been heavily impacted by avian influenza, mainly in its western regions—known for substantial duck and outdoor production—has witnessed a significant drop in infection rates and a complete recovery of its domestic supply since implementing vaccination protocols. Other countries in Asia and Latin America, where farmers typically do not receive compensation for avian influenza-related losses and have lower export dependence, have also moved to adopt vaccination.
Looking beyond the immediate challenges of avian influenza, increasing geopolitical tensions and competition in the global poultry market are significant concerns. The overall outlook for global trade remains positive, driven by sustained tight market conditions in major import areas such as the European Union, the UK, and the Middle East, as well as improving market situations in Japan and Southeast Asia. Strong import demand is expected to endure throughout the year, keeping prices for breast meat elevated. However, weak demand from China and local oversupply could hamper growth prospects.
Geopolitical factors, including US tariffs on poultry imports and retaliatory measures from impacted regions, introduce additional complexity, potentially leading to a trade war that could disrupt established trade flows. In this context, countries like Brazil and Thailand are positioned to gain market share, particularly in markets like China and Mexico, as Mulder noted: “They are already gaining market share in markets like China and Mexico, and this trend is likely to continue, especially if trade tensions escalate.” Furthermore, the repercussions of geopolitical disputes may also lead to alterations in operational dynamics, particularly with regard to the movement of agricultural commodities and feed additives. Mulder emphasised the necessity for global traders to remain agile and prepared to respond to any developments that may arise in this evolving landscape.
Source: Noah Wire Services
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