A Sprott report predicts that geopolitical friction and supply anxieties will keep critical minerals and precious metals at the forefront of investor focus in 2026, driven by deglobalisation and strategic policy shifts.
Critical minerals and precious metals, driven by geopolitical friction and supply anxieties, look set to remain central to investors’ attention in 2026, according to a Sprott report that synthesises trends first visible during 2025 and now intensifying...
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as states prioritise sovereignty over efficiency.
Sprott frames 2026 as a year in which deglobalisation deepens and broadens across economic, geopolitical and investment landscapes, reshaping commodity flows and embedding structural inflationary pressures. The report says governments are prioritising resilience and resource security, particularly for critical minerals and energy, over the low‑cost, just‑in‑time model that dominated the previous era. That shift, Sprott argues, is accelerating “de‑dollarisation” dynamics and reinforcing gold’s role as a neutral reserve asset, with silver positioned to benefit as a lower‑cost alternative.
The fractured global inventory system that emerged in 2025 is expected to underpin further commodity strength, Sprott adds. Tariffs and resource nationalism have already prompted stockpiling of rare earths, copper, platinum‑group metals and aluminium, disrupting mechanisms that previously delivered price convergence across markets. Sprott highlights episodes such as U.S. copper trading at material premiums to London last year amid localized shortages triggered by tariff concerns.
Gold and silver remain central to Sprott’s bull‑cycle thesis. The firm traces gold’s renewed strategic status to 2022, when Western restrictions on Russian reserves prompted a reassessment of safe assets, and notes unprecedented central bank accumulation since then, with China a dominant buyer. Silver’s narrative has evolved: historically a follower of gold as a monetary hedge, it has “graduated” into a critical mineral as industrial demand tied to clean energy and AI infrastructure has surged. Sprott cautions that “While consolidation after silver’s impressive 2025 rally is possible, we believe the longer‑term risk skew remains to the upside,” Sprott analysts wrote.
Independent reporting and market data show investors are already responding. MoneyWeek reported silver reaching a record $90.52 per ounce as of 14 January 2026, reflecting more than 140% returns for entrants in early 2025 and underscoring strong industrial demand from AI, electric vehicles and solar sectors. That performance has, in places, outpaced gold’s gains.
Policy responses are coalescing around the same security themes. According to AP and Axios, a bipartisan group of U.S. lawmakers is advancing proposals to strengthen domestic supply and resilience for critical minerals: legislation to create a $2.5 billion Strategic Resilience Reserve or an independent agency to stabilise prices, build stockpiles and incentivise production has been tabled, reflecting bipartisan urgency to reduce reliance on concentrated foreign suppliers.
Beyond precious metals, Sprott singles out uranium, copper and rare earth elements as critical to watch. Uranium’s bull case is being reinforced by tighter fundamentals, clearer policy support and demand linked to data‑centre energy needs; Sprott points to multi‑year commitments by large technology firms to secure nuclear power and notes substantial U.S. funding commitments for new reactors. Copper’s outlook is underpinned by persistent supply risk, Sprott observes that bringing a new mine from discovery to production now averages roughly 17 years, while rare earths remain a strategic bottleneck because supply is highly concentrated, particularly in China, making diversification politically urgent.
Market forecasts for bullion diverge. Goldman Sachs analysts, cited in industry notes, have raised their December 2026 gold target significantly, with scenarios that see gold near $4,900 per ounce, driven by continued central‑bank buying and ETF inflows. By contrast, a World Bank projection cited by market commentary expects average gold prices around $3,575 an ounce in 2026 and anticipates the rally abating by 2027. These differing views illustrate the range of outcomes investors must weigh amid policy driven demand on one hand and scenarios of mean reversion on the other.
Taken together, the evidence points to a year in which strategic policy choices and industrial demand, rather than pure cyclical forces, will largely determine metals markets. Governments are moving to insulate supply chains and build reserves, central banks and institutional buyers continue to accumulate bullion, and industries tied to AI and the energy transition are intensifying demand for a range of critical minerals. That confluence, Sprott argues, supports a multi‑year commodity cycle in which gold, silver and a selected group of critical minerals play a central, strategic role.
Source: Noah Wire Services
