Former US President Donald Trump launches a controversial 20-point Gaza peace initiative, encountering complex regional and political obstacles as negotiations shift in Egypt amid ongoing violence and humanitarian crises.
The recent developments surrounding the Gaza conflict have revealed a complex and tense landscape, with competing political interests, fragile negotiations, and enduring violence challenging any prospects for lasting peace.
Former US President D...
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onald Trump has thrust himself back into the spotlight by announcing a 20-point Gaza peace plan, declaring support from Arab states and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. However, as a detailed review shows, the purported agreement is far from straightforward. Hamas’s conditional agreement, as posted on Trump’s social media platform, hinges on inclusion within a “comprehensive Palestinian national framework,” an ambiguous term that underlines continuing divisions. Netanyahu’s government appeared caught off guard by Trump’s premature declarations, prompting Pakistani foreign officials to note alterations to the draft peace deal. Such discord indicates that Trump’s approach, reliant on deal-making tactics familiar from his business career, may underestimate the historical and ideological complexities of the Middle East conflict—an issue that has defied empires for centuries.
The fallout has made realistic peace solutions even more elusive. Netanyahu’s ongoing military campaign against Hamas, which he feels must surrender before ceasefire, draws sharp international criticism and risks isolating Israel further, even among its traditional supporters. Recent Pew research highlights this shift: while 60% of Americans hold an unfavourable view of Israel’s government, a staggering 77% disapprove specifically of Netanyahu’s administration, juxtaposed with 82% disapproval of Hamas. This dual unpopularity illustrates the deep mistrust on all sides.
The political situation within Israel adds another layer of complexity. Netanyahu faces resistance from far-right coalition partners such as Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, who oppose any peace plan that allows for the possible resurgence of Hamas. They have threatened to bring down the government, risking early elections that could derail ongoing negotiations. Reports indicate Netanyahu supports Trump’s peace initiative, which demands Gaza’s demilitarization and excludes Hamas from governance unless it disarms and renounces violence. Yet, this hardline stance complicates compromises necessary for peace.
Despite the political turbulence, there are tentative signs of progress. Hamas has conditionally accepted several elements of Trump’s peace plan, including ceasefire, hostages’ release, and Israeli withdrawal. In response, Israel agreed to start implementing elements of the plan, although hostilities persist. Airstrikes have continued despite Trump’s calls for a halt, with Palestinian officials reporting dozens of casualties, including children. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu confirmed a partial redeployment of troops but emphasised Israel’s ongoing security control in Gaza.
Diplomatic efforts are now focusing on indirect negotiations in Egypt involving Israeli, Hamas, Egyptian, US, and Qatari delegates. These talks intend to broker a comprehensive deal upfront, avoiding previously unsuccessful phased approaches. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio described the current situation as the most promising for resolution, although he underscored that the war is not yet over.
The humanitarian crisis remains severe, with over 67,000 Palestinians reported killed and nearly 170,000 injured since the conflict escalated in October 2023. The conflict has drawn growing international pressure, including from Muslim-majority countries and global protest movements advocating for peace and Palestinian governance reforms. Yet, the combination of ongoing violence, political fragmentation, and deeply entrenched mistrust challenges any swift resolution.
Trump’s recent engagement with Netanyahu has been marked by both frustration and determination. When Netanyahu responded cautiously to Hamas’s conditional acceptance of the peace plan, Trump reportedly expressed exasperation but later reaffirmed their partnership in pursuing peace through a public video message. This dynamic reflects the complicated nature of US-Israeli relations amidst the crisis.
Overall, the Gaza conflict remains a deeply fragmented and volatile issue. The international community watches closely as negotiations begin in Egypt, but prospects hinge on Hamas’s disarmament, Israel’s security concerns, and political will within both sides. The situation more closely parallels intense, intractable conflicts like Kashmir than the relative success of Northern Ireland’s Good Friday accords, with ideological extremism and asymmetrical warfare clouding the path toward peace.
For the business and investment communities, the uncertainty means preparing for a prolonged period of instability. Whether peace emerges after the Israeli elections next year, or following a military resolution of Hamas, remains unclear. What appears certain is that any sustainable solution will require far more nuanced diplomacy than transactional deal-making, and an acknowledgment of the deep historical, ideological, and humanitarian stakes involved.
Source: Noah Wire Services
