India’s Russian oil imports face volatility amid tightening sanctions enforcement

Indian officials implement stricter inspections and payment scrutiny on Russian crude shipments, causing a fluctuating flow of oil at ports amid ongoing global sanctions and market adjustments.

Indian officials say tighter inspections and payment oversight aimed at enforcing Western sanctions are prompting a fall in Russian crude arriving at Indian ports, though external data and market reporting present a less clear picture of the scale of the change.

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to the original report, officials expect Russian oil imports in December to fall to about 800,000 barrels per day after ports began more rigorous checks of vessels in the so‑called “shadow fleet” that Russia has used to circumvent sanctions. The measures require tankers to provide certificates of origin, flag registration details and other documentation, and banks have stepped up scrutiny of payments, the report said. It added that all Indian refiners except Nayara Energy Ltd , which has ties to sanctioned Rosneft , have reduced Russian purchases, while Nayara increased volumes because European restrictions have narrowed its alternative supplies.

Industry trackers provide different estimates of flows that underline the uncertainty. Kpler said December deliveries could be around 1.3 million bpd, up from roughly 1.9 million bpd ordered in November. Reuters reporting, however, shows a contrasting trend: December volumes were projected to reach about 1.85 million bpd, a six‑month high, as some buyers such as Nayara sharply increased intake while others like Reliance cut back markedly. Reuters attributed that rise to a shift in the composition of buyers and to stockpiling at ports such as Vadinar, which was reported to be taking volumes above processing capacity.

The divergence reflects competing forces: enforcement and banking scrutiny that constrain sanctioned‑linked shipments, and commercial incentives , steep Russian discounts and refinery logistics , that encourage some Indian buyers to continue or even raise purchases. Reuters analysis of the U.S. sanctions imposed in October on Rosneft and Lukoil noted the measures have forced asset sales and prompted some buyers globally to step back, but also pushed Russia to offer deeper discounts that keep demand in markets such as India and China.

The sanctions and tighter oversight have practical effects in the physical market. Media reporting cited in the lead piece estimated that as much as 48 million barrels of Russian crude could be “stuck” at sea as tankers seek alternative destinations amid new restrictions. Reuters reporting on the sanctions added that the measures have reshaped flows, stranded cargoes and increased pressure on Russia to divest international assets, while also altering refined product markets and transshipment activity.

India’s broader economic and diplomatic context is relevant. U.S. officials have been in Delhi discussing trade ties and pressing India to reduce its dependence on discounted Russian crude; Washington has linked relief on tariffs and trade frictions to progress on energy purchases. Reuters coverage of recent bilateral talks recorded U.S. requests for tariff relief tied to India’s energy dealings and noted Delhi is negotiating a bilateral trade framework while resisting certain agricultural market openings. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and U.S. President Donald Trump have continued high‑level engagement as trade and sanctions issues are worked through.

Domestic trade data provide additional context. Government and industry figures show India’s merchandise trade deficit narrowed in November as imports of gold, oil and coal fell, indicating that lower oil imports or switching between grades and suppliers can have a tangible macroeconomic impact. Separately, movements in edible oil buying , with refiners switching to cheaper palm oil , show how price incentives and logistical factors drive import patterns across commodities.

Taken together, the available reports indicate a market in flux: Indian authorities are tightening port and banking checks to align with Western sanctions, prompting some refiners to curb purchases, yet substantial volumes continue to move to India because of discounts, buyer strategies and logistical tradeoffs. The net effect on Russian export revenue and on longer‑term sourcing choices will depend on how enforcement, commercial incentives and international diplomacy evolve in the weeks ahead.

Source: Noah Wire Services