The recent findings from Allianz Trade reveal the far-reaching effects of the ongoing trade war, specifically highlighting the fallout from the US’s tariff policies on international exporters. The latest 2025 Global Survey gathered insights from 4,500 companies across nine major economies—comprising countries that collectively constitute nearly 60% of the world’s GDP. The survey was conducted before and after the significant tariff announcements under President Donald Trump, termed “Liberation Day,” on April 2.
Initial optimism among exporters has dramatically waned. Before the tariff announcements, 80% of firms had positive export expectations; this figure has plummeted to just 40%. Now, nearly 60% of exporters anticipate negative impacts due to the escalating trade tensions, with 45% predicting a decrease in export turnover. The survey projects a staggering potential loss of USD 305 billion in global exports by 2025, underscoring the severity of the situation.
Notably, exporters in China and Singapore are among the most affected. In China, 82% of respondents expect a downturn in international sales, with over 60% forecasting revenue declines of up to 10%. Singaporean firms are experiencing similar pessimism, with 55% projecting reduced revenues. Although bilateral trade agreements have offered some hope, ongoing policy unpredictability and substantial tariffs remain significant hindrances. Thus, many companies are proactively seeking new markets to absorb the shocks, demonstrating flexibility in the face of adversity.
Aylin Somersan Coqui, CEO of Allianz Trade, emphasised this shift: “In sharp contrast to the optimism seen before the April 2 tariff wave, this year’s Global Survey confirms what we are observing across markets: uncertainty and fragmentation are becoming structural.” Many businesses are responding not just by diversifying their client base, but also by reconfiguring their supply chains to mitigate risks associated with concentrated dependencies.
Beyond the immediate financial concerns, the report points to worrying trends in payment expectations. Since the tariff announcements, 25% of companies now anticipate delays in payment terms exceeding seven days, with a considerable portion also bracing for increased instances of missed payments. This situation is particularly urgent in countries like the US, UK, and Italy, where liquidity pressures are mounting. As outlined by Ana Boata, Head of Economic Research at Allianz Trade, larger firms often face the most significant delays, leading them to act as “invisible banks” for smaller firms—a trend unlikely to benefit the overall health of the market.
The study also indicates a marked shift in global trading patterns, particularly between the US and China. Following the tariff policies, only 10% of US companies plan to export to China, a significant decrease from past figures. Conversely, there is renewed interest among European firms in Asia, particularly towards China and South-East Asian markets, illustrating a realignment in trade dynamics. As Françoise Huang, Senior Economist for Asia Pacific and Trade, articulated, “Friendshoring is likely to continue gaining traction,” with a growing number of firms eyeing alternative nations for production.
The backdrop of these findings reveals a broader trend of rising protectionism globally, amplified by political impulses from both the Trump and Biden administrations. Biden has not only maintained many tariffs but also introduced new ones aimed at addressing economic self-reliance and countering China’s influence. Such measures, however, raise concerns about their long-term viability and the potential for worsening inflationary effects for US consumers and businesses, as noted by various analysts.
In conclusion, as exporters navigate an increasingly volatile environment marked by unpredictability, adaptability emerges as their most critical asset. While many firms are actively seeking diversification and new markets to lessen their dependence on troubled supply chains, the question looms: how sustainable is this shift amidst an overarching tide of protectionism? The Allianz Trade survey paints a sobering picture, one that signals the urgent need for actionable strategies in an era defined by economic uncertainty.
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Source: Noah Wire Services
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