On 22 May, the European Union unveiled its ambitious €150 billion loan programme under the Security Action for Europe (SAFE) initiative, aimed at enhancing military support for Ukraine and promoting joint procurement among EU member states. This strategic move is particularly timely, given the shifting geopolitical landscape influenced by the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war and the uncertainty surrounding United States military support following the presidency of Donald Trump. A report by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy indicates that, as of early 2025, the EU had actually provided €62 billion in military aid alongside €70 billion for humanitarian and financial assistance to Ukraine, just slightly behind the U.S. contributions of €64 billion in military and €50 billion in non-military support.
Andrius Kubilius, the EU’s inaugural defence commissioner and former prime minister of Lithuania, heralded the SAFE initiative as “a very important breakthrough” for European defence. He expressed optimism about widespread participation in the initiative, emphasising that the loans would facilitate collaborative projects focused on Ukrainian defence needs. Member states have a six-month window to propose projects that could be financed through these loans. While the UK does not qualify for loans, it is anticipated that British entities will still have a role in SAFE-funded projects through an EU-UK security pact, signed just three days prior.
The SAFE initiative marks a significant shift in European defence strategy, a response to the perceived inadequacies of U.S. military backing. Kubilius pointed out that it is illusory to believe that Russian President Vladimir Putin is interested in a peaceful resolution, asserting that only a formal peace achieved through strength would suffice. He articulated a perspective shaped by his experiences in the Soviet Union, arguing that Ukraine’s success poses a fundamental threat to Putin’s vision of regional dominance.
However, responses among EU member states have varied. While 15 countries, including Germany and Poland, have signalled intent to utilise the budgetary flexibility afforded by the SAFE programme, larger economies like France, Italy, and Spain remain hesitant. These nations, historically among the more reticent contributors to Ukraine’s military support, are wary of accumulating further debt, posing a challenge to the EU’s overarching goal of bolstering its defence framework to the planned €800 billion.
The SAFE fund mandates that 65% of project costs must come from defence companies based in EU countries or Ukraine, thus prioritising local industry for military procurement. This safeguards European economic interests but also invites challenges; France, for instance, has been particularly vocal about limiting non-EU participation, a contentious topic given the strategic interests of other member states, including those in Eastern Europe.
This initiative also unfolds against the backdrop of increasing military cooperation, with plans to enhance Europe’s defence capabilities without undue reliance on U.S. engagement. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has revealed an overarching vision encompassing an €800 billion funding strategy that not only seeks to expand military spending but also promises to shield social expenditure. This comprehensive approach aims to position Europe as a more self-reliant entity in the face of external threats, particularly from Russia, ensuring that member states are better prepared for future challenges.
In this context, the SAFE programme represents not merely a financial initiative but a crucial pivot in the EU’s strategic operations. Whether this initiative can achieve its ambitious goals remains to be seen, particularly given the mixed responses from member states and the complexities of international military dynamics. But if Kubilius’s insights hold true, the impetus toward a more robust European defence capability may be a significant step toward addressing both current and future security needs in an uncertain world.
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Source: Noah Wire Services
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