The Spanish newspaper El Mundo presents five distinct scenarios for how the Ukraine conflict could conclude, highlighting risks of escalation, prolonged stalemate, and political shifts that could influence the war’s trajectory.
The Spanish newspaper El Mundo has outlined five distinct scenarios for how the war in Ukraine might come to an end, painting a complex picture of a conflict with no easy or immediate resolution. These scenarios range from a fragile, U.S.-b...
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rokered peace to a potentially dangerous escalation involving NATO, or a prolonged stalemate that could stretch well into 2026.
One of the less likely but noteworthy possibilities involves former U.S. President Donald Trump exerting diplomatic pressure on Russia to accept a peace deal. Analysts cited by El Mundo describe such an outcome as “fragile and temporary.” Moscow, according to the report, views the conflict as an existential struggle, meaning any negotiated settlement would likely serve only as a temporary pause rather than a durable peace. As the report puts it, “Negotiations cannot end the war—they can only freeze it.”
A more alarming scenario envisaged by the Spanish outlet is that of escalation into a direct military confrontation between Russia and NATO. This could be triggered by a single incident in a sensitive region such as the Baltics, suddenly broadening the war beyond Ukraine’s borders and ushering Europe into a new era of insecurity. The potential for such a confrontation underscores the dangers of miscalculation in an already tense geopolitical environment.
The scenario El Mundo regards as most probable is a war of attrition lasting into 2026. In this extended conflict, both Ukraine and Russia would continue to drain their military and economic resources with the ongoing support of their respective international backers. Europe and the United States would keep providing aid to Ukraine, while Russia might rely increasingly on China and North Korea. This scenario posits a “war of exhaustion” where neither side achieves a decisive victory, but both continue fighting with severe costs.
Another potential outcome involves the weakening of the Russian economy, which might then compel President Vladimir Putin to seek negotiations. For the first time since the conflict began, there are signs that Kremlin leaders are concerned about the deterioration of military-industrial capacity and the economic outlook for 2026. Economic realities, rather than military defeat, could turn out to be the main catalyst for ending the war.
The fifth scenario, not covered in detail by El Mundo, but mentioned in other analyses, involves continued diplomatic efforts and mediation by international actors to facilitate a ceasefire or peace agreement. However, these attempts face significant hurdles, including mutual distrust, complex political dynamics within Ukraine and Russia, and the influence of powerful foreign stakeholders.
Broader reporting from media outlets such as the BBC, Reuters, Al Jazeera, The Guardian, and The New York Times echoes the bleak complexity of the situation. The conflict has exacted a heavy toll both militarily and on civilian populations, with serious humanitarian challenges emerging amidst ongoing hostilities. Diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions continue but are often overshadowed by the realities on the ground.
The international community remains deeply involved, with Western nations sustaining Ukraine’s defense capabilities through financial and military support and imposing sanctions intended to pressure Russia economically. Conversely, Russia’s alliances with countries like China and North Korea contribute to the prolonged nature of the war, underscoring the global ripple effects of this regional conflict.
In sum, the war in Ukraine appears poised to either continue as a drawn-out struggle or risk broader escalation. The path to peace is fraught with complexity, influenced by military, economic, and geopolitical factors that render any scenario tentative and uncertain. As El Mundo and other international observers highlight, the conflict may only end when one party’s capacity to continue is fundamentally undermined or when external pressures force both sides to negotiate a settlement—however fragile it might be.
Source: Noah Wire Services
