**Washington**: Experts warn that the Trump administration’s intensified immigration enforcement could lead to labour shortages in the U.S. agricultural sector, similar to the impacts of Brexit on the UK, jeopardising food supplies and driving up prices across the country.
As the Trump administration intensifies its efforts to curb illegal immigration in the United States, experts warn that the nation’s food supply chain may soon face significant disruptions reminiscent of the challenges the United Kingdom encountered following its exit from the European Union in January 2020. The concerns were articulated by Barbara Guignard, a principal at Efficio, a global procurement and supply chain consultancy.
Speaking to FreightWaves, Guignard compared the impending changes in U.S. immigration policy to the effects of Brexit, stating, “When the U.K. chose to restrict access to immigrant labor, it created a major crisis in the agricultural sector.” She noted that Brexit led to immediate consequences for the labour market, resulting in workforce shortages and visible gaps on supermarket shelves, particularly in the fresh produce aisles.
Guignard elaborated on the cascading effects of Brexit on the U.K. agricultural sector, where new visa requirements prompted a decline in European seasonal workers who had previously returned each year for harvests. The challenges were further compounded by the restrictions imposed during the COVID-19 pandemic, which hampered cross-border movement. She cited Romania as a prominent source of agricultural workers that saw a substantial decline in participation, attributing this to the new immigration rules coupled with pandemic-related disruptions.
According to Guignard, a similar decrease in immigrant labour in the U.S. could lead to critical outages in the agriculture and food processing sectors. She cautioned, “If production drops, it will have a ripple effect across processing, transportation, and the broader economy.” This potential downturn in harvests could consequently drive up food prices nationwide.
President Donald Trump has declared illegal immigration a national emergency since his return to office on January 20, 2023, and mass deportation efforts have been escalated by his administration. Although the precise number of deportations that have occurred remains unclear, U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement reported that, as of February 3, the agency had made 8,768 arrests. In recent statements, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum indicated that her country has received over 14,000 deportees since Trump’s latest directive.
The Centre for Migration Studies estimates that there are more than 8 million undocumented immigrants working within the U.S. economy, representing about 5% of the total workforce. This demographic is particularly prevalent in sectors such as construction, agriculture, restaurants, and food processing, where they play a crucial role.
John Walt Boatright, director of government affairs for the American Farm Bureau, commented on the integral role of immigrant labour in maintaining the food supply chain, emphasising that “Agriculture, and our economy, rely on foreign workers to put food on the table.” However, he pointed out the pressing need for systemic reforms to the immigration framework, stressing that these solutions must safeguard major industries from unintended consequences arising from immigration policies.
In Florida, Thomas Kennedy of the Florida Immigrant Coalition highlighted the substantial reliance on migrant labour within the state’s agricultural sector, estimating that between 37% to 47% of the workforce in agriculture comprises noncitizens. This demographic’s significance cannot be overstated in terms of the state’s ability to maintain its agricultural output and overall economic vitality.
Beyond the immediate impacts on agriculture, some organisations are already experiencing disruptions. Hey Y’all Detroit, a nonprofit committed to delivering fresh produce to families in need, reported halting its programmes due to issues stemming from recent deportations that affected its supplier farms in Texas. Charmane Neal, the founder of the organisation, characterised this as a significant setback for their ability to serve the community.
Conversely, Dante Galeazzi, president and CEO of the Texas International Produce Association, stated that farms in the Texas Rio Grande Valley, a major agricultural hub, have yet to experience disruptions related to deportations. He indicated that efforts are being made to ensure that producers understand their rights, reaffirming compliance with existing regulations.
Reflecting on the lessons from Brexit, Guignard indicated that the U.K. government attempted to replace the lost migrant labour force with domestic workers through initiatives like the ‘Pick for Britain’ campaign. However, this approach fell short of expectations as many local workers were unwilling to take on the challenging and often poorly paid roles in agriculture.
Looking ahead, Guignard encouraged businesses within the food sector to adopt strategies that would safeguard their supply chains, such as diversifying their supplier bases to mitigate risks associated with labour shortages. She noted that fostering stronger relationships with suppliers could prove beneficial in times of disruption, providing companies with priority access to resources when crises arise.
Source: Noah Wire Services
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