**South Asia:** India has formally suspended the Indus Waters Treaty in response to cross-border terrorism from Pakistan, marking a historic shift. This move deepens diplomatic tensions, disrupts critical water-sharing arrangements, and challenges regional stability, as both nations face environmental and security pressures.
On 24 April 2025, India formally notified Pakistan that the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) of 1960 is being “held in abeyance with immediate effect.” This unprecedented move follows a terror attack in Pahalgam and reflects a broader package of diplomatic measures, including a visa freeze, closure of the Attari-International Border crossing point, and downsizing of diplomatic missions. India stated that the treaty’s abeyance will remain until Pakistan “credibly and irrevocably” ends cross-border terrorism.
The IWT, signed on 19 September 1960 following the partition of British India, allocates waters of the Indus river system between eastern rivers flowing to India and western rivers flowing to Pakistan. Despite multiple wars between India and Pakistan in 1965 and 1971, the treaty had proven resilient, continuing to function as a critical water-sharing and conflict-management mechanism. The treaty established the Permanent Indus Commission (PIC), consisting of commissioners from both countries, to regularly exchange hydrological data and manage disputes.
However, since 2016, cooperation under the IWT has been strained, particularly following terrorist attacks within India attributed to Pakistan-based groups. In 2023, India formally sought to renegotiate the treaty under Article XII(3), citing changed circumstances. The decision to hold the treaty “in abeyance” in 2025 marks a significant departure, signalling India’s use of the treaty as leverage linked directly to Pakistan’s actions on terrorism.
The treaty’s legal architecture presents complexities. There is no unilateral exit clause; modifications or termination require mutual consent and ratification. India’s approach to “suspension” under the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties (VCLT) Article 60 allows temporary halting of obligations without full termination, maintaining technical legality and preserving humanitarian river flows. India argues that the fundamental change of circumstances caused by Pakistan-sponsored terrorism and demographic and climate changes justify this step. India also invokes international counterterrorism principles under United Nations Security Council Resolution 1373.
The operational fallout has been significant. PIC meetings ceased in 2024, and the World Bank’s traditional role as the treaty’s neutral arbiter is diminishing as India contests parallel arbitration proceedings relating to ongoing hydropower disputes. India has signalled intent to redesign hydropower projects to maximise permissible water storage—projects like Ratle and Ujh could see technical adjustments aligned with treaty limits.
For Pakistan, the suspension exacerbates existing vulnerabilities. Over 80% of its irrigated agriculture depends on the Indus basin waters, and 30% of its hydropower is reliant on the western rivers governed by the treaty. Pakistan faces structural challenges, including low water storage capacity, inefficient irrigation infrastructure, and climatic stresses such as erratic monsoons and glacial melt. Politically, internal water conflicts, such as disputes between provinces, pose risks amidst growing water scarcity. Diplomatic isolation may deepen as the World Bank and China have shown reluctance to take assertive stances supporting Pakistan in this hydro-political dispute.
The broader implications for South Asia’s stability are significant. The treaty had long been seen as a rare example of cooperation and peace-building between India and Pakistan post-partition. Its suspension transforms water resources from a means of confidence-building into a tool of coercive diplomacy, intertwining water security directly with issues of terrorism and geopolitics.
Looking ahead, proposals include creating a “Treaty-Plus” engagement framework linking treaty reinstatement to Pakistan’s verifiable anti-terror actions, using emerging technologies such as satellite monitoring for transparency, and developing regional climate adaptation funds involving international partners. India aims to align enhanced water infrastructure with environmental sustainability and improve basin security through integrated border and water governance.
The future of the Indus Waters Treaty and regional water security now hinges on Islamabad’s response to India’s demands related to terrorism, and New Delhi’s management of hydro-leverage within international legal and ecological constraints. How these dynamics unfold will shape the contours of strategic, legal, and environmental cooperation in South Asia in the years ahead.
Source: Noah Wire Services
