India’s rising imports of Russian crude oil and the use of alternative currency mechanisms challenge Western sanctions, revealing a shift towards greater strategic autonomy and a more multipolar global order.
In the evolving landscape of international relations, significant pressure from dominant global powers frequently aims to shape the policies of less powerful states. Historically, such pressures have often resulted in concessions favourable to the stronger actors, as captured by Thucydides’ enduring observation that “the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must.” Yet, history and contemporary geopolitical developments illustrate that external coercion can paradoxically strengthen the sovereignty and strategic autonomy of targeted states, particularly when these states leverage their growing internal capacities effectively.
This dynamic is clearly reflected in the recent trajectory of India’s energy policy, which has seen a marked shift towards greater engagement with Russia, challenging prevailing Western sanctions and economic pressures. Prior to the Ukraine conflict, India’s crude oil imports from Russia were marginal, roughly 1% of its total intake. However, since the onset of hostilities in Ukraine in 2022, and despite Western efforts to isolate Russian energy supplies, India’s imports have surged dramatically. By 2024, Russia emerged as India’s largest crude oil supplier, accounting for around 35-42% of India’s total imports, with figures varying slightly depending on the source and period referenced.
Data from multiple reports highlight this trend. For the fiscal year 2023-24, Russian oil made up approximately 35% of India’s crude imports, up from 23% the previous year. This rise occurred despite the narrowing of Russian oil discounts—from as much as $30 per barrel to around $2-3 per barrel—underscoring Russia’s continued economic appeal for Indian refiners amid a complex geopolitical environment. Notably, this shift led to a contraction in supplies from traditional OPEC countries such as Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, whose shares correspondingly declined. By fiscal year 2024-25, Russia’s share further increased to roughly 36%, with imports averaging around 1.76 million barrels per day and OPEC’s share hitting a record low of approximately 48.5%.
The surge in India’s imports of Russian crude is not only a story of favourable pricing but also a reflection of a broader strategic reorientation. Indian officials have highlighted the “highly attractive” prices of Russian oil and stressed that approximately 90% of bilateral transactions are settled in rubles and rupees. This currency settlement mechanism reduces dependence on the US dollar, signalling a push for greater financial sovereignty amid a global environment increasingly shaped by competing power centres. Such moves align with a wider discourse among emerging powers advocating for a “post-Western” world order that decentralizes the hierarchical liberal economic structures historically dominated by the West.
India’s firm stance in maintaining its energy relationship with Russia has drawn sharp reactions from the United States. In a notable episode of coercive diplomacy, the US imposed a 50% tariff on Indian goods, combining a standard 25% tariff with an additional 25% punitive tariff, aiming to pressure India into reducing its reliance on Russian energy supplies. This punitive measure followed further sanctions introduced in January 2025 against Russian oil producers and tankers that transport crude, many of which previously serviced Indian refineries. Despite these measures, India has persistently defended its sovereign prerogative to pursue economic and strategic imperatives independent of external political pressures.
Indian authorities have condemned the US tariffs as “unjustified and unreasonable,” underscoring inconsistencies in American policy, where the US continues to import Russian uranium, palladium, and fertilizers even as it penalises India’s Russian oil purchases. Senior Indian diplomats articulate that India’s energy policy is pragmatically driven by national development needs and market realities rather than geopolitical alignment or lobbying interests, countering narratives from US officials who allege that benefits from Russian oil imports disproportionately enrich India’s elite.
The resilience of India’s energy partnership with Russia exemplifies a broader systemic shift in global governance dynamics. As the international system moves toward a more polycentric and multipolar order, secondary powers like India are increasingly asserting autonomy in their foreign and economic policies. This growth in strategic agency challenges the effectiveness of traditional coercive tools wielded by unipolar powers, suggesting a recalibration in the rules governing global trade and diplomacy.
The case also embodies the intersection of economic necessity and political symbolism. India’s diversification of energy sources—importing about 85% of its crude oil needs—makes the discounted Russian oil supplies fiscally prudent and essential for its growing economy. Moreover, the ruble-rupee trade mechanism reflects an emergent geopolitical finance landscape where de-dollarisation is a strategic goal for many Global South countries seeking greater independence from Western-dominated financial architectures.
In conclusion, India’s increased engagement with Russian oil, despite significant Western sanctions and diplomatic pressures, highlights the complexity of contemporary geopolitics where sovereignty and strategic autonomy can be reinforced even under duress. This evolving dynamic signals the emergence of new global economic contours and challenges the enduring dominance of any single power, suggesting a truly pluralistic international order in the making.
Source: Noah Wire Services
